On August 11th, 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks lost a game 10-5 to the San Diego Padres to drop their record to 57-59 for the year and fall three full games back of the last Wild Card spot with 46 games left to play.
And this isn't even a story of a team who got red hot down the stretch and rode the momentum all the way to the World Series. Over their last 33 games of 2023, the Diamondbacks went just 16-17, including losing their last 4 in a row. And yet, they snuck in the last playoff spot, got hot, won the pennant, and played for a World Series.
A baseball season is so incredibly long. So unbelievably, ridiculously long. On August 12th, 2021, the Braves lost 12-3 to Cincinnati to fall to 59-57 on the year. They won the World Series later that fall.
On August 4th-7th of 2022, the Braves played a 5-game series with New York Mets, who were 3.5 games up in the division. This was the Braves chance to finally catch the team they had been chasing all summer. The Braves went 1-4 in those 5 games and a 3.5 game division lead turned into 6.5 division lead, and that seemed to be all she wrote. Except it wasn't. The Braves chased down the Mets from that point on, and clinched the division on the second to last day of the season.
In 2024, the Braves are 61-56, and have a 0.5 game lead for the last Wild Card spot. There was a 99.5% chance it was going to be 62-55 in the 8th inning yesterday when the Braves held an 8-2 lead with 1 out and no one base. But 8 hits and 7 runs later, the Rockies finished off a soul-crushing comeback to win 9-8, and the Braves were once again left wondering why they choose to play this stupid game for a living.
The Mariners helped them out, blowing out the Mets to finish off a 3-game sweep, and kept the Braves in the playoff bracket by half a game. Now Atlanta heads to San Fransisco for a 4-game series and in desperate need of some momentum.
In a cruel twist of the knife, the offense, which has been the problem most of the year, has come alive the last week. The Braves as a team have a 152 wRC+ over the last 7 days, scoring 36 runs in 6 games and reminding the league this team still has a potent offense when their best guys play to their talent level.
The problem has been the pitching, which has been the team’s strength all year. Over the last week, the Braves as a team have a 9.52 ERA, which of course is dead last in the majors. No other team has anything above a 6.96 ERA. If you're wondering what a 9.52 ERA looks like, its allowing 57 earned runs in 52 innings over 6 games. That's over 9 earned runs per game. Opponents have a .488 BABIP against Braves pitching over the last week and a .370 BABIP against Braves pitching since the All-Star break, both are the highest in the majors. Anything over .300 is considered unlucky. In fact, that .370 BABIP against in the second half is 50 points higher than the next closest team, the Yankees at .321. Every ground-ball, every flare, or broken-bat bleeder as found open space against the Braves in the second half so far, never more evident than the 8th inning of yesterday’s game where every ball off Colorado’s bat was perfectly placed, just out of the reach of somebody.
And there’s absolutely zero chance that continues. Having a .370 BABIP against for 20+ games is already basically impossible, it could only happen to the 2024 Braves, and there will be some positive regression very, very soon.
And that’s where the hope lies. The offense is awakening, Jorge Soler, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and the catchers have joined Marcell Ozuna in being weapons at the plate, and scoring runs no longer feels like the impossible mission it was just a few weeks ago. And the pitching is being inflicted by some of the worst batted ball luck I've ever seen on a team-level for this many games, with zero chance of it continuing at that rate.
And when that happens, there is absolutely a run left in this team. And really, they don't need much of run. Even with the brutal baseball of the last 3 weeks, the Braves are still currently in the playoffs if they started today. 85 wins is usually good enough for that last Wild Card spot and the Braves could play .500 ball the rest of the way and get to 84 wins. That means just slightly above average baseball from now to the rest of the season problems gets them a spot. It’s not like they need a 20-5 stretch at some point to make the postseason, though no one would turn one down if they wanted to oblige.
But it’s a long season. It’s crazy long season. The 2023 Diamondbacks weren't thinking of a World Series run at this point last year. The 2022 Braves would've never guessed they would chase down the Mets after what happened in early August that year. And we know about 2021. Every team in baseball is going to go through another 20+ twist and turns before the 2024 season is over with, including the Braves.
And yes, yesterday was soul-crushing. The worst loss of the season by far. Still only counts as 1 loss. The Mets and Phillies lost too so the standings stayed relatively the same. As wild as it sounds, the Braves could still accomplish everything they want to accomplish this year. Hell, they still have 7 games left head-to-head with the Phillies, who have been taking on water as bad as the Braves have been lately. And they're 4-2 against them this year. Even the division isn’t over.
It's a long year, crazy things happen, and the Braves still have talent. We’ve seem the pitching shine, we’ve seen the offense awaken. Michael Harris II is almost back, Reynaldo Lopez is almost back. If they can get everything going at once, literally anything can happen.
That’s baseball. That why we love it.
